Background

Anticipatory action is emerging as a pivotal approach within the framework of comprehensive disaster risk management, particularly suitable for nations like Pakistan that frequently face weather-induced disasters. In this context, leveraging anticipatory measures becomes paramount in mitigating the far- reaching impacts of these events. Both the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and various technical agencies entrusted with disaster risk management currently possess the capability to predict and anticipate extreme weather events with the potential for substantial economic and social repercussions. Recognizing the significance of these existing forecasting capacities, there is an urgent need to transition them into actionable responsibilities, ensuring a proactive response that leaves no one behind. This underscores the transformation of predictive capabilities into a commitment to act upon warnings, emphasizing the imperative of safeguarding all segments of the population from the adverse effects of impending disasters. There is a need for Anticipatory action planning that involves proactive measures undertaken by both individuals and organizations in anticipation of a forthcoming disaster. These actions are prompted when a hazard, identified through forecast data, early warnings, and pre- disaster risk analysis, establishes an imminent danger. The primary objective is to mitigate the potential impact on people, assets, and infrastructure. Human Appeal is seeking the support of a consultant in an ongoing initiative of Anticipatory Action in Dadu (Sindh)  with  the financial  support of  World Food Programme. WFP has completed the Initial technical feasibility focusing on AA's potential in reducing riverine flooding impacts in district Dadu. The major deliverable of this project is riverine specific development of AA protocols in the district Dadu.

  Objective

 Developing triggers and thresholds:

The process of developing a trigger mechanism shall encompass:

• Conducting risk analysis to understand the expected impacts of hazard shocks. b)   Select hazards and analyze their historical impacts.
• Conducting an exposure analysis to see who or what is likely to be impacted.
•  Identifying vulnerability indicators to help prioritize geographic areas, communities, and households most likely to be impacted by the selected hazard.
•  Creating an inventory of forecasts to select the best-suited forecast to trigger action based on verification, lead time, type, and reliability.
•     Define hazard magnitudes and calculate a return period. The provision of funding for early actions depends on the significance of humanitarian impact, so the return period is needed to provide a probability of an extreme event happening in a given year.
•  Analyze links between hazard magnitude and impact, in order to establish the expected impact and vulnerabilities. Also known as the impact-hazard curve or vulnerability function, this analysis is conducted using some combination of expert knowledge, elementary modelling, and statistical modelling.
•  Create an intervention map by combining vulnerability and exposure information with forecast data to identify the targeted areas for early action interventions.