CALL FOR CONSULTANCY SERVICES (Firms/Institutions/Group of Consultants)

Title

Team of Anticipatory Action, Hydro-Meteorological Modelling & GIS Specialists

Organization

Aiming Change for Tomorrow (ACT) International

Project Location: Rahim Yar Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, Punjab

Assignment Duration: 16 February – 30 June 2026

Duty Station: Frequent field travel to the three target districts of southern Punjab, with coordination meetings in Lahore and Islamabad as required.

Reports To: Project Manager

1. BACKGROUND

ACT International, with the support of a donor, is implementing a multi-district project aimed at strengthening Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Anticipatory Action (AA), and shock-responsive social protection systems in climate-vulnerable districts of southern Punjab, including Rahim Yar Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan and Rajanpur.

Southern Punjab hosts over 23 million people and is among Pakistan’s most climate-exposed regions, facing recurrent riverine floods, flash floods from hill torrents, droughts, and extreme heat. The districts lie along the Indus River system, River Chenab, River Sutlej, and the foothills of the Sulaiman Range, making them highly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological hazards. Recurrent shocks in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have repeatedly damaged crops, housing, irrigation systems, and livelihoods, disproportionately affecting women, smallholder farmers, landless laborers, and marginalized groups.

Despite the availability of early warning information at national and provincial levels, forecast-based decision-making, trigger definition, and last-mile early action remain weakly institutionalized, particularly at district level. District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) face persistent capacity constraints, fragmented coordination with social protection systems (BISP, Social Welfare, Bait-ul-Mal), and limited use of hydro-meteorological and GIS-based risk analysis to guide anticipatory actions.

ACT International has successfully operationalized Anticipatory Action in District Khairpur (Sindh), where forecast-based triggers enabled anticipatory cash transfers to 2,200 households 35-40 hours before flooding during 2025, significantly reducing losses and enabling timely evacuation and food access. Building on this experience, and aligned with donor Anticipatory Action Framework, ACT aims to institutionalize forecast-based, gender-responsive anticipatory action mechanisms in southern Punjab, closely linked with social protection and food security systems.

To support the delivery of the project, ACT International seeks a highly experienced team of Anticipatory Action, Hydro-Meteorological Modelling & GIS Specialist to provide technical leadership across risk analysis, trigger development, AA protocol formulation, GIS mapping, simulation exercises, and capacity building.

2. PURPOSE OF THE CONSULTANCY

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide specialized technical expertise to design, operationalize, and institutionalize forecast-based Anticipatory Action systems by integrating hydro-meteorological analysis, GIS-based hazard and vulnerability mapping, and trigger-based decision-making, in alignment with donor standards and Punjab’s disaster management and social protection frameworks. The consultant will play a core technical role in enabling timely, evidence-based early action that protects food security, livelihoods, and vulnerable populations before climate shocks escalate into humanitarian crises.

3. SCOPE OF WORK AND KEY RESPONSIBILITIES

The consultant will work across the project, with responsibilities structured as follows:

A. Hydro-Meteorological Risk Analysis and Trigger Development

• Lead district-level hydro-meteorological risk analysis for riverine floods, flash floods, droughts, and heatwaves using PMD, Irrigation Department, NDMA/PDMA, and historical disaster datasets.
• Support development of scientifically robust, forecast-based triggers and thresholds aligned with donor AA guidance and operational feasibility.
• Prepare district-specific Trigger and Risk Analysis Reports, including justification of trigger selection, lead times, severity levels, and confidence thresholds.
• Support multi-stakeholder trigger validation workshops with PMD, PDMA, DDMAs, EPCCD, Social Protection departments, and technical actors.
• Support simulation and run-through exercises to test trigger activation, decision-making pathways, and readiness for anticipatory action.

B. GIS-Based Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk Mapping

• Conduct GIS-based multi-hazard mapping for flood (riverine and flash), drought, and heat stress across targeted districts.
• Develop district-level hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk maps, integrating:
  • Population and settlement data
  • Livelihoods and food security indicators
  • Social protection beneficiary data (where available)
• Establish GIS databases and mapping products to support targeting, planning, and anticipatory decision-making.
• Support DDMA and PDMA staff in using GIS outputs for District Disaster Management Plans (DMPs) and Anticipatory Action Protocols.

C. Anticipatory Action Protocols and DMP Integration

• Provide technical leadership in drafting district-specific Anticipatory Action (AA) Protocols using the donor AA protocol template.
• Ensure protocols clearly define:
  • Forecast-based triggers and activation thresholds
  • Pre-agreed anticipatory actions (cash, food, livelihoods)
  • Roles and responsibilities across DRM and social protection actors
  • Gender, protection, and inclusion considerations
• Support revision and updating of District Disaster Management Plans (DMPs)to embed:
  • Forecast-based triggers
  • Anticipatory action menus
  • Risk-linked financing pathways
• Provide technical input during district validation workshops for protocol and DMP endorsement.

D. Capacity Building, Training, and Simulations

• Design and deliver technical training modules on:
  • Anticipatory Action concepts and frameworks
  • Hydro-meteorological forecasting and interpretation
  • Trigger-based decision-making
  • GIS applications for DRM and AA
• Support and technically backstop trainings delivered with 1122 and National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM).
• Provide technical guidance during district and community-level simulation exercises, drills, and mock activations.
• Mentor ACT project staff, DDMA, and DEOC personnel on operational AA implementation.

E. Coordination, Knowledge Management, and Technical Reporting

• Coordinate closely with PDMA Punjab, concerned DDMAs, EPCCD, PMD, Social Welfare, NIDM, BISP, and donor on technical aspects.
• Contribute to documentation of lessons learned, best practices, and scalable AA models.
• Prepare monthly technical progress updates and a final consultancy report with recommendations for scale-up and institutionalization.

4. DELIVERABLES

Key deliverables include (but are not limited to):

• District-level Hydro-Meteorological Risk & Trigger Analysis Reports, shared with ACT, PDMA and NDMA, and presented in relevant technical review meetings.
• Forecast-based Trigger Statements and Activation Protocols, agreed with PDMA, DDMAs, PMD and the Adaptive Social Protection Expert, and presented to relevant provincial/national coordination forums.
• GIS-based hazard, vulnerability, and risk maps with databases, handed over to ACT, PDMA and DDMAs, and presented in technical sessions for use in planning and adaptive social protection.
• District-specific Anticipatory Action Protocols, developed with PDMA, DDMAs, PMD, Social Welfare/BISP and the Adaptive Social Protection Expert, and submitted/presented for formal validation.
• Technical inputs to revised District Disaster Management Plans, prepared jointly with DDMAs/DEOCs and the Adaptive Social Protection Expert, and shared with PDMA/NDMA for endorsement.
• Training materials, session reports, and simulation exercise reports, shared with ACT, PDMA, DDMAs and the Adaptive Social Protection Expert, and used in debrief/learning meetings.
• Monthly progress reports, submitted to ACT/donor and shared with PDMA/NDMA and the Adaptive Social Protection Expert, highlighting coordination and reporting status.
• Final Consultancy Report with strategic recommendations, including linkages to adaptive social protection, formally submitted and presented to ACT, donor, NDMA, PDMA and key social protection stakeholders.

5. REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS AND EXPERIENCE

Education

• Master’s degree in Disaster Management, Hydrology, Meteorology, GIS, Environmental Science, Geography, or a related discipline.

Experience

• Minimum 7 years of relevant experience in DRM, early warning systems, and anticipatory action.
• At least 3 years of hands-on experience in hydro-meteorological analysis, GIS mapping, and trigger development.
• Proven experience working with government DRM institutions (PDMA/DDMA), UN agencies, or humanitarian organizations.
• Demonstrated familiarity with donor Anticipatory Action frameworks is a strong asset.

Technical Competencies

• Strong proficiency in GIS and spatial analysis tools.
• Solid understanding of flood forecasting, climate risk analysis, and early warning systems.
• Experience with forecast-based financing and trigger-based response models.
• Ability to translate technical analysis into operational decision-support tools.

6. WORKING ARRANGEMENTS

• The consultancy will be contracted by ACT International and will work under the overall guidance of the Project Manager
• The consulting team is expected to undertake frequent travel to the three districts, as well as periodic meetings in Lahore/Islamabad with PDMA, PMD, donor, and other stakeholders.

7. PROPOSAL SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS

Interested and eligible firms are invited to submit a Technical and Financial Proposal comprising:

1. Technical Proposal

○      Understanding of the assignment and context.

○      Detailed methodological approach for each component (hydro‑met analysis, triggers, GIS, AA protocols, capacity building, simulations).

○      Proposed team composition, roles, level of effort, and CVs of key experts.

○      Organization’s profile, relevant experience, and references for at least three similar assignments

2. Financial Proposal

○      Cost breakdown by team member

○      All applicable taxes clearly indicated.

○      Financial proposal must be submitted in PKR

3. Supporting Documents

○      Copy of firm registration and relevant tax documents.

○      At least two sample reports or knowledge products from similar assignments (or links where publicly available).

○      Any certifications or affiliations relevant to DRM, hydro‑met, or GIS sectors, if available.

Submission Email: [email protected]
Subject Line: Consultancy Services – Team of Anticipatory Action, Hydro-Met & GIS Specialists 

Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis until the positions are filled.